Prediction: Google Chrome Will Be Bigger Than Firefox by Christmas

by Patrick Altoft on September 2, 2008

This might seem like a very bold prediction but I think that by Christmas Google Chrome could have a larger share of the UK browser market than Firefox.

Google Chrome vs Firefox

Here in the UK Google IS the Internet. They have a 90% market share of search and google.co.uk is probably set as more peoples homepage than any other website.

Despite being a blog about SEO (which as an industry traditionally has a lot of Firefox users) the stats for BlogStorm make depressing reading for Mozilla. In the last month Firefox accounted for just 36% of the visitors.

If Google was to put a link on their homepage giving users an incentive to download Google Chrome then they would get millions of downloads every week. Incentives such as “Get faster Gmail access”, “Get more Gmail storage” would be enough to tempt most Gmail users. Other services such as “Faster YouTube uploads and video access with Google Chrome” would tempt most YouTube users.

How about having integrated Google Drive support so your browser becomes a file storage system accessible from any PC? I’d download it for that feature alone.

Google has the audience and the loyalty to do this, all they need now is to deliver on the product.

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{ 25 comments… read them below or add one }

Dusan 02 Sep 2008 at 11:47 am: http://www.google.co.uk/chrome says Not found Error 404…
Ciaran 02 Sep 2008 at 12:03 pm: Interesting post and one which I don’t really disagree with. What I would say is that Gmail is unlikely to be the Trojan horse that tips chrome – if I remember correctly the most popular (non-search) Google properties are YouTube (which you mention), iGoogle & Maps. Some clever integration of all three of these could really give the new browser a boost at launch.

Of course, as far as I’m concerned, Google already is a browser: http://www.altogetherdigital.com/20080814/whats-the-uks-most-popular-browser-google/ (sorry for the link – feel free to remove)
Patrick Altoft 02 Sep 2008 at 12:22 pm
Find me on Twitter: Dusan, the url isn’t live until later today.

Ciaran I think if they were to say that all their properties worked better with Chrome then they could leverage their user base pretty well. No probs with link dropping here.
More comments from Patrick Altoft
Dabitch 02 Sep 2008 at 12:51 pm: Hmm. Maybe. God knows I’ve gone bac to Safari because Firefox is slow like molasses these days. Sure sure, I could upgrade to get rid of that but then I loose all y neat toys and toolbars too. Oh wait, maybe that’s why it’s slow. )
franz enzenhofer 02 Sep 2008 at 1:47 pm: i have visualized what will happen here http://www.facesaerch.com/blog/download-google-chrome-comic-as-ebook-pdf/
Shane 02 Sep 2008 at 2:00 pm: Google has the audience and the loyalty to do this, all they need now is to deliver on the product.

That’s really going to be the interesting thing to watch. While Google should be able to get an instant, significant foothold in any technical area they want to enter, they’ve had a history of less than stellar success.

Not that I doubt them at all — just that it’s going to be interesting.
Lea de Groot 02 Sep 2008 at 3:03 pm: I agree – *IF* they move to push it in a big way then it will be bigger than, well, christmas
But the G has a long history of letting projects languish (admittedly, usually ones they have bought…) so – we shall see, eh?
Interesting times, my friend!
Rob 02 Sep 2008 at 3:43 pm: Google will need to target Firefox users, who account for approx 30% of the market. IE6, released in 2001 still has 25% market share, just below IE7, and that shows that most people will not change browsers. Approx 1% of IE6 users switch to IE7 every month, alot of this coming from new pc’s.

Geeks will flock to Chrome, but the mass will stay with IE, therefore FF is at most threat.
Vladimir Prelovac 03 Sep 2008 at 12:32 am: I do doubt this prediction as Firefox users are mostly tech savvy and what makes Firefox great are tons of plugins that took years to develop.

If it is going to take some users those are most likely to be IE users through the incentive on Google Search or where ever. Right?
Bubba 03 Sep 2008 at 1:03 am: DUDES! I CAN’T GET YOUTUBE TO WORK WITH GOOGLE CHROME! EVERY TIME I TRY TO DOWNLOAD THE ADOBE STUFF….IT NEVER DOWNLOADS! i NEED HELP

Thanks.
Yossarian 03 Sep 2008 at 9:00 am: Well considering Google are pushing it on their homepage I would say it will help gain a following quite quickly.

I do agree about the IE users though, all the people I know that use IE are the type of people to never upgrade, if they do they will likely stick with what they know.

So far I am underwhelmed with chrome, it is OK but not great, though it is in Beta and FF has had a lot more time to mature. I think if they implemented extensions then it would help win over some of the FF users.
Jon 03 Sep 2008 at 10:45 am: I’d guess Google will target the PC manufacturers, so that Chrome is pre-installed as the default browser. That seems to be their strategy with mobile / cell phones

Cheers, Jon
jon bradford 03 Sep 2008 at 12:47 pm: Yes – IF- they choose to push it.

I don’t think there principle motivation (initially) is market share – this is about tell users that they should expect more from their browsers – rather than accept bloatware.

Competition should ensure that other browsers will need to adopt key functionality built into Chrome (it is open source)
Vladimir Prelovac 03 Sep 2008 at 1:43 pm: There is one huge advantage of Chrome over Firefox. It loads *instantly*!
Ady Berry 03 Sep 2008 at 1:47 pm: Personally I think it will be a big success, as the majority of non tech users will be happy to trust a Google branded browser. However I have my concerns over what they are going to do with all the info that they are getting – http://www.i-com.net/blog/google-chrome-eula-86/
Moda 03 Sep 2008 at 3:44 pm: no posible, at least not yet, firefox have a lot of resources (”inspired people”) who develop great addons for free
Luca 03 Sep 2008 at 4:10 pm: Only death will pry me from my Firefox addons like Roboform toolbar, SEOQuake, and ScrapBook. How can Google compete with the thousands of 3rd party plugins available for FF? I can’t see how they’ll persuade people to give up all these super free tools for a bit of speed.
Andy 03 Sep 2008 at 5:23 pm: Xmas 2009 maybe, but not this year.
media kingdom 03 Sep 2008 at 7:20 pm: should be interesting to see if Chrome works more efficiently than FireFox… if it’s faster than Firefox, since isn’t IE, then i’ll use it
Ady Berry 04 Sep 2008 at 9:06 am: Got to admit it’s great for checking my webmaster tools and Google analytics – superfast but with no SEOQuake, Fireshot, Firebug or Web Developer it’s not a viable choice yet for my every day work.
jon bradford 04 Sep 2008 at 9:14 am: It is interesting to note that the greatest proportion of the comments are related to extensions rather than some other philosophical reason.

Given that extensions are used only by a relatively small proportion of internet users and the predominance of the download on the Google homepage, they appears are initially interested in the “great unwashed” (i.e. the average user).
Ernest 04 Sep 2008 at 8:01 pm: The superior Javascript rendering has given the common Google apps (maps, gmail etc) a nice boost. Opera always used to struggle with Maps. Although I have mouse gesture withdrawals and I still return to Firefox for the Firebug tool. I can only see a small percentage of people feeling that sort of effect and maybe Chrome is the vehicle to carry these sorts of enhancements to the masses?

The real question is – if they achieve the market share of Firefox so quickly, where will they grab this from? Will we see a decrease in IE7 (obviously we all want less IE6 – wishful thinking). Or will Opera, Safari and Firefox suffer? I suspect Chrome has the best chance of any to overturn the concept of “the blue E is the internet”. But can this actually be turned into “the blue G”. I wouldn’t put it past them.

Mind you, they could do with a bit of time to concentrate on their ‘eff-ing’ search algorithm!!!
Andre Thomas 07 Sep 2008 at 12:19 pm: I think someday it Chrome will be a serious competitor of Firefox… or maybe even overtake them. But by Christmas? No way… at least I don’t think so. That would be too awesome for Google!
Kenneth Dreyer 21 Sep 2008 at 2:15 pm: I wrote a post as a respond to this, but I’m not sure if I got the trackback right. Anyway, here it is: http://kennethdreyer.com/google-chromes-shares-among-webmasters/
google chrome 23 Sep 2008 at 2:49 am: I’m totally rooting for Google Chrome. I think it has or had the chance because it’s so functional. Only thing holding it back was the lack of plugins. But Google removed the download link from their homepage!! Grr…. Oh well, hope your prediction comes true but without a download link, might be hard for those not familiar with Chrome to find it.